Redwood MX Update: September 2025

This Month: USMCA Compliance and Market Pressures in Focus

Welcome to the September edition of Redwood’s Mexico Market Update! Redwood’s cross-border specialists created this report to keep you informed about key economic and business trends in Mexico, transportation news and challenges, and new investors in Mexican markets over the preceding weeks.  

At the Foro de Proveeduría Automotriz (Automotive Supply Forum) held in León on September 10 and 11, a central topic was the need for Mexican companies to document and demonstrate their compliance with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). About half of Mexican imports are exempt from any tariffs under this 2020 trade agreement.  

A speaker from COFOCE (Foreign Trade Promotion Coordination of the State of Guanajuato) emphasized that more businesses must strengthen their origin certification and labor compliance practices and reporting to guarantee protection under USMCA, as even a single complaint can trigger sanctions. Adaptability and strict adherence to trade rules are seen as crucial to maintaining competitiveness as U.S. tariff policy becomes increasingly unpredictable. Duties are reaching up to 200%, with a new 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks and a proposed 100% tariff on microchips and semiconductors. 

If you’re doing business in Mexico and you need help navigating USMCA documentation and protections, turn to the expert team at Redwood Mexico for guidance. We have deep resources and expertise in Mexico-U.S. trade, with over 200 bilingual experts and six facilities on both sides of the border. Whatever your situation regarding tariffs, we can help you understand and minimize your exposure and business impacts. 

Two factors continue to define Mexico’s cost environment more than any others: fuel and currency. Both diesel prices in Mexico, now averaging $5.32 USD per gallon, and the peso exchange rate, hovering around 18.4 MXN/USD, remain the biggest forces shaping transportation costs and competitiveness. High fuel prices are squeezing domestic carrier margins and pushing rate volatility across corridors, while the strong peso keeps Mexican exports cost-competitive for U.S. buyers. These trends directly impact cross-border pricing, logistics planning, and supply chain strategy as Mexican domestic freight stays relatively expensive while exports remain strong. 

In August, Mexico’s trade balance posted a –$1.94 billion deficit, with exports of $55.72 billion (+7.4% year over year) and imports of $57.66 billion (–0.2% year over year). 

While official truckload volume data isn’t publicly released, industry estimates suggest northbound truckload crossings rose roughly 5–7% year to date, a trend that closely mirrors the increase in total trade value. Freight demand appears especially strong along automotive, consumer goods, and e-mobility corridors connecting northern Mexico to Texas.  

Cargo theft remains a concern for cross-border shippers. In August, cargo theft in Mexico rose 6.1% month over month, with State of Mexico (24.7%), Puebla (14.6%), and Oaxaca (13.3%) standing out. The most affected products were food (27%), construction materials (12%), textiles (10%), and auto parts (8%). About 54% of incidents occurred in transit, mainly along the Mexico–Puebla 150D, Puebla–Veracruz 150D, and Córdoba–Minatitlán 145D highways. Redwood Mexico’s experts can help you assess your own vulnerability to theft, as well as adopt safer practices that protect both your drivers and your cargo. 

Transportation News and Challenges   

Mexican ports modernize, expand to drive trade growth 
The continued growth of Mexican trade is creating new opportunities and challenges for its ports. In 2025, Lázaro Cárdenas moved 13.4 million tons of cargo, and Manzanillo handled 1.88 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), underscoring this growth. To remain competitive, Mexico is advancing port and land infrastructure upgrades, integrating logistics hubs, and diversifying trade routes. Digitalization is boosting efficiency and access for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), while market expansion into Asia, the Middle East, and Brazil opens new opportunities. These efforts strengthen Mexico’s logistics network and position it as a reliable regional hub in global trade. 

Nuevo León–Texas electro-route aims to redefine transport 
Nuevo León and Texas are preparing to launch the first binational electric freight route in the Americas, connecting Monterrey with Laredo and potentially extending to Dallas. The project, supported by state partners and leading e-mobility innovators, will use Windrose long-range electric trucks and strategically placed charging stations along key trade corridors. 

This initiative aligns closely with Redwood’s Hyperion, which helps shippers track and reduce their carbon impact across cross-border operations. As electric freight adoption expands, Hyperion’s sustainability insights will play a key role in helping customers model emissions savings and identify greener routing options in real time. 

The pilot phase begins in November with five units, marking a major step toward decarbonizing one of North America’s busiest freight lanes. While challenges remain, including upfront costs, power infrastructure, and regulatory alignment, the Texas and Nuevo León corridor is quickly becoming a testbed for the next generation of sustainable logistics. 

Investment Trends  

In September, foreign investment in Mexico remained strong. Following are some recent infrastructure investments that demonstrate Mexico’s continuing appeal to foreign manufacturers. 

Major new entrants in the energy and manufacturing sectors are expanding their footprints across Nuevo León and Querétaro. One notable development involves increased investment linked to the new e-mobility program, supporting advanced production capabilities in Texas and Nuevo León. 

Diehl Aviation, also headquartered in Germany, opened a $49.9 million plant in Querétaro, creating 600 specialized aerospace jobs. A business unit of Danish logistics giant Maersk, APM Terminals will invest $174.9 million in Puerto Progreso, Yucatán, modernizing the port over 19 years and generating 1,300 jobs. U.S. aviation leader GE Aerospace is allocating $29.9 million in Hermosillo and Saltillo to enhance its engine and component manufacturing with advanced technology. 

Whether your own plans include building a facility, investing in cross-border logistics, or otherwise capitalizing on robust U.S.-Mexico trade, Redwood is the right partner to support you. Learn more about our cross-border and international capabilities, or let’s talk one-on-one about your specific goals, challenges, and opportunities.