Redwood MX Update: October 2025

This Month: Tariffs Drive a 20% Decline in Truck Freight Traffic

The October edition of Redwood’s Mexico Market Update looks back at key economic and business trends in Mexico, transportation news and challenges, and new investments in Mexican markets over the last month. We hope you find these reports interesting and informative. 

Import tariffs imposed on Mexican goods by U.S. President Donald Trump have resulted in a 20% drop in truck freight traffic between the U.S. and Mexico. This statistic is based on traffic volumes from January through the first half of October 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.  

Miguel Ángel Martínez Millán, president of the National Chamber of Freight Transport (Canacar), says the flow of goods between the two countries has been significantly impacted by tariffs, particularly in sectors such as vehicles, auto parts, steel, and aluminum. 

In an interview with Forbes Mexico, Martínez Millán also cited new English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirements for commercial drivers that were also announced by the Trump Administration. “There have been cancellations of licenses and visas for truck operators for not speaking English, but we do not have the number quantified,” he said.   

While Canacar executives are not yet concerned about the ELP requirements, they are worried about ongoing trade uncertainty and reduced freight volumes caused by the U.S. import tariffs. If you need help navigating tariffs, ELP requirements, driver shortages, and other challenges, reach out to Redwood Mexico’s team of experts for support.   

In general economic trends, both fuel prices in Mexico ($5.371 USD/gallon) and the currency exchange rate ($18.3892 USD/MXN) continued to show stability in October. 

Cargo theft in Mexico remained high in September 2025, with 83% of incidents occurring on weekdays, particularly on Tuesdays and Fridays. Most thefts (70.4%) happened overnight, between 8:00 p.m. and 9:00 a.m. The Central region accounted for 50% of thefts, followed by the Bajío region (28%). Puebla (30%) and the State of Mexico (23%) were the most affected states. Most incidents of cargo theft (56.4%) involved the interception of units in motion, and the main targets were food and beverages (29%) and miscellaneous goods (13%). 

Transportation News and Challenges   

U.S. government shutdown slows cross-border freight operations
The recent U.S. government shutdown has added another layer of uncertainty to cross-border operations. While essential functions like customs inspections and border security continue, the shutdown has slowed administrative processes at agencies like the Department of Transportation and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (source). Carriers have reported longer processing times for permits and cross-border paperwork, which can delay shipments and disrupt supply chain predictability. 

According to MexicoMLogistics, the slowdown is particularly affecting freight entering through high-volume crossings in Texas, where staff shortages and reduced hours are compounding congestion. These disruptions come at a time when shippers are already navigating tariff pressures and tighter trade conditions. 

Redwood continues to monitor the situation closely and can help shippers develop contingency plans to manage customs delays, reroute freight, and minimize service interruptions.

Trump imposes new 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks 
U.S. President Donald Trump announced that, starting November 1, medium- and heavy-duty trucks entering the U.S. will face a 25% tariff. Affected vehicles include delivery trucks, garbage and utility trucks, school buses, semi-trucks, and tractor-trailers. The measure could significantly impact Mexican trade, as Mexico is the largest exporter of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., moving about 340,000 trucks annually that represent 82.31% of U.S. imports of these vehicles. In 2024, exports grew by 13.59%, but during the first seven months of 2025 they fell by 7.34%. According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst at FTR, some fleets may delay or cancel orders. He added that the new tariff worsens an already challenging trade environment, with 50% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper raising costs and complicating supply chains.  

Investment Trends  

Foreign investment in Mexico remains robust, despite tariffs and ongoing global trade uncertainty. The following recent infrastructure investments demonstrate Mexico’s continuing appeal to foreign manufacturers and retailers. 

Chinese manufacturer Intretech opened its first plant in Apodaca, Nuevo León, with an investment of $60 million USD. Steelform, a Swiss-American automotive company, has begun construction of a plant in Pesquería, Nuevo León, with an investment of $60 million. Based in China, Yongmaotai Automotive will invest $63 million in a new aluminum components factory in Coahuila. Edgewell, an American personal care products manufacturer, is investing $110 million in a new plant in Aguascalientes, creating more than 1,300 jobs. The international company Daye México recently inaugurated a new $300 million production plant in Salinas Victoria, Nuevo León, designed to produce power tools and smart products for gardening and irrigation. 

Interested in strengthening your own cross-border investments in production, transportation, or distribution? Reedwood can help, whether through hands-on support or strategic guidance. Learn more about our cross-border and international capabilities, or reach out to discuss your specific goals, challenges, and opportunities.