Redwood MX Update: June 2025

This Month: Amid Trade Uncertainty, There's Also Good News

Welcome to the June edition of Redwood’s Mexico Market Update! In this monthly report, we look back at the previous few weeks — and share key economic and business trends in Mexico, transportation news and challenges, and new investments in Mexican markets. 

As we turn the corner on the first half of 2025, it’s been quite a year already. In March, Mexican exports to the United States totaled US $47.982 billion, the highest monthly figure on record. This was followed by a 25% tariff imposed on Mexican imports coming into the U.S. that fail to comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — and a 50% tariff on all steel products. U.S. President Donald Trump also signed an executive order that strengthens English proficiency requirements for commercial drivers, potentially limiting employment opportunities for Mexican drivers with B1 visas.

In an interview with Freightwaves last month, Jordan Dewart, president of Redwood Mexico, discussed the uncertainty caused by this year’s ongoing policy announcements. “There are questions being asked from senior leaders, and usually they’re going to logistics or to supply chain and saying, ‘Hey, I need to know what’s going on here. What can we do about tariffs?’ It’s kind of a mad scramble for them to get educated on these things,” Dewart told Freightwaves.

The cross-border experts at Redwood Mexico are ready to help customers intelligently and profitably navigate these changes. Redwood can also help shippers take advantage of the growth in Mexico’s trade infrastructure, which represents some good news among the turmoil. Keep reading to learn more.

In general economic trends, fuel prices in Mexico remained steady in June at $5.26 USD/gallon, which translates to 97.87 MXN/gallon. The Mexican peso rallied to a strong exchange rate of $18.89 USD/MXN, though analysts expect the peso to weaken as the impacts of tariffs continue to evolve.

Cargo theft in Mexico continued to grow in May, with 78% of incidents occurring on weekdays, mainly from Tuesday to Friday, which accounted for 69% of cases. About 85% of thefts happened between 7:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. The most affected states were Estado de México and Puebla, representing 53% of the national total. The most stolen products were food and beverages (26%), and most thefts (57.9%) occurred while the units were in transit.

Transportation News and Challenges

Trump signs off on $10 billion green corridor for cargo

In June, Donald Trump signed off on a $10 billion infrastructure project that will link Texas and Mexico through a 165-mile elevated freight corridor. The project, led by Green Corridors and funded by the private sector, will create a fully electric and autonomous cargo route. The new green freight corridor will begin in San Antonio, cross the border at Laredo, and connect to Monterrey. According to Green Corridors, the Intelligent Freight Transportation System will significantly improve border security by eliminating wait times for cross-border cargo. The system will scan 100% of cargo, facilitating faster inspections and seamless integration with U.S. Customs and Border Protection protocols. The green corridor will also reduce traffic and congestion. Laredo is one of the busiest land trade crossings in the U.S., handling over $339.03 billion in trade in 2024.

Mexican government bets big on infrastructure

The Government of Mexico, through the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications, and Transport (SICT), has announced significant progress in the National Road Infrastructure Program. The program includes an investment of MX $56.5 billion (US $3.3 billion) in 2025 alone and is expected to generate 162,093 direct and indirect jobs. Funding allocations for 2025 cover various projects such as priority corridors, bridges and interchanges, and road maintenance. Areas of focus this year include the Cuautla-Tlapa priority corridor, the Tierra and Libertad circuit, and construction of the Jojutla Bridge. This ongoing government investment is aimed at strengthening connectivity, boosting economic growth, and creating jobs.

Mexico drops to #10 on list of largest exporters

According to the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment, and Technology (COMCE), in 2024 Mexico slipped one position in the global ranking of the Top 10 exporting countries, dropping from ninth to tenth place. Mexico is the tenth-largest exporter by value, accounting for 2.5% of global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) says 2025 will be an atypical year for international trade, projecting a 0.2% contraction in global merchandise trade volume, contrasting with the 2.9% growth recorded in 2024. The WTO attributes the slowdown to new tariffs, reduced demand, and supply chain adjustments.

Investment Trends

Foreign investment in Mexico remains robust, despite this year’s global trade upheaval. Take a look at these recent infrastructure investments that demonstrate Mexico’s continuing appeal to foreign manufacturers and retailers.

Headquartered in the Netherlands, brewer Heineken will invest $2.75 billion USD in Yucatan for a new plant. U.S. food manufacturer Kellanova will invest $660 million in a new plant in Queretaro. China-based Hengli Hydraulics will spend $325 million in Nuevo Leon for a new facility. China’s TYW Manufacturing, which produces electronic instrument panels for the automotive industry, will construct a new $55 million plant in Guanajuato. South Korean automaker SL MEX will invest $45 million in San Luis Potosi for a new plant.

Interested in strengthening your own cross-border investments in production, transportation, or distribution? Redwood can help, whether through hands-on support or strategic guidance. Learn more about our cross-border and international capabilities, or reach out to discuss your specific goals, challenges, and opportunities.