Redwood MX Update: October 2026

1. Key Affecting Factors

Mexican Fuel: $27.004 MXN/Liter
U.S. Fuel: $6.352 USD/Gallon
Foreign Exchange: $18.5798 MXN/USD

iStock-2237481449 Mexico's National Chamber of Freight Transport (CANACAR) launched an indefinite nationwide strike on October 26, 2026, to demand better security conditions and financial support for the transportation sector. The protest began despite the government's invitation to negotiate, which several transportation organizations had accepted. Trucking companies are concerned about cargo theft, violence against drivers, and proposed cuts to tax incentives in the 2027 federal budget. According to the article, 1,105 cargo truck robberies and 15 driver deaths had been reported through September 2026. The strike could affect the movement of approximately 1.6 million tons of goods transported across Mexico every day. Meanwhile, Mexico and the United States continue negotiating a tariff agreement, but no final deal has been signed. The United States currently applies tariffs to Mexican steel, aluminum, and automobiles, while Mexico is seeking reductions in these duties. The situation is also complicated by disagreements over Mexico's program involving Cuban doctors, which some U.S. lawmakers believe violates labor provisions under the USMCA. Both countries are approaching the agreement's next annual review in July 2027. The duration of the strike and the outcome of the negotiations remain uncertain.

Attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have increased, creating serious concerns for international shipping and global supply chains. One of the most serious incidents involved the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride, which caught fire after being struck by an unidentified projectile and later sank near Oman. All 21 crew members were evacuated safely, and no injuries were reported. Another Singapore-flagged vessel, the GFS Giselle, was also hit and sustained damage, although it managed to reach a safe anchorage. These incidents have raised concern among shipping companies because the Strait of Hormuz is an important route for global energy and maritime trade. The attacks may also affect shipping companies that reserve container space on vessels operated by other carriers, potentially creating insurance and liability complications. Oil shipments through the strait also fell to approximately 12.6 million barrels per day on October 13, compared with around 15 million barrels per day at the end of September.

2. Transportation News & Challenges

Mexico experienced a significant increase in heavy-duty vehicle production and exports in September 2026, driven mainly by stronger demand from the United States. Mexican manufacturers produced 15,181 heavy-duty vehicles during the month, compared with 6,857 units in September 2025. Exports reached 12,707 vehicles, representing a 144.6% increase compared with the same month the previous year. According to the National Association of Bus, Truck and Tractor-Trailer Producers (ANPACT), U.S. customers are purchasing more vehicles ahead of new emissions standards scheduled for 2027. These upcoming regulations are encouraging manufacturers and customers to adjust their production schedules and purchasing decisions. From January through September 2026, Mexico exported 98,394 heavy-duty vehicles, an increase of approximately 12% year over year. The United States remained Mexico's largest export market, receiving 90,967 vehicles and accounting for approximately 92.5% of total exports during that period. Canada also recorded robust growth, with exports increasing by 47.6% compared with the same period in 2025. Despite this export growth, Mexico's domestic market remained weak, with September retail sales declining by 11.3% year over year.

Mexico’s recent Customs Law reforms have introduced stricter controls and new responsibilities for customs brokers, transportation companies, and importers and exporters. One of the most significant changes is that customs brokers now face greater responsibility for irregularities during customs clearance. They must also verify that their clients comply with tax, customs, and foreign trade regulations. These requirements are intended to improve cargo traceability, reduce tax evasion, and ensure that companies provide accurate information. However, the reforms have increased administrative costs and raised penalties for customs violations from 70–100% to 250–300% of the value of the goods. During the first months of implementation, additional inspections and documentation requirements caused delays in cargo movements and border crossings. The expectation is that customs operations will become more efficient as companies adapt to the new rules and authorities complete the implementation process.

Identity theft and digital fraud are a growing risk for companies involved in cross-border freight operations between Mexico and the United States. Mexican trade officials have warned that criminals are impersonating importers, exporters, company executives, and customs brokers to divert payments related to international shipments. In one reported case, a foreign trade company transferred money believing it was paying a iStock-1156955640 legitimate customs agency, but criminals had stolen identities associated with the transaction. Fraudsters may create fake internet domains that resemble legitimate company websites and send messages claiming that a company's banking information has changed. Because criminals sometimes have access to real shipment details and business communications, their requests can appear authentic and difficult to detect. The urgency of customs operations increases the risk, as companies may feel pressured to transfer money quickly to release cargo or avoid storage fees. Advance payments for customs services are particularly vulnerable because they can cover transportation, handling, storage, and other shipment-related expenses.

Cargo truck robberies in Mexico decreased by 20.5% during 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to the National Chamber of Freight Transportation (CANACAR). The number of reported incidents fell from 6,096 to 4,950. Another positive change was the reduction in violent robberies, which went from 41% to 24% of total reported cases. Additionally, more than 70% of the stolen or affected vehicles were recovered. Despite these improvements, Puebla and the State of Mexico continue to have the highest number of cargo theft incidents, accounting for almost three out of every four cases reported by state prosecutors. The Mexico-Querétaro-San Luis Potosí and Mexico-Puebla-Veracruz highways remain among the most dangerous routes for freight transportation. Most robberies occur between 6 p.m. and midnight, when visibility is lower. Food and beverages are the most frequently stolen products, followed by household appliances and auto parts. Criminal groups also use GPS signal jammers to interfere with vehicle tracking systems. Authorities and transportation companies have increased security operations, monitoring systems, and driver training to help prevent these crimes. However, official figures may not show the full extent of the problem because the majority of robberies are never formally reported.

Truck driver compensation in the United States continues to increase, even though the freight industry has experienced weak demand, lower transportation rates, and rising operating costs. According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), trucking companies are willing to pay more to retain qualified, experienced, and safety-conscious drivers. The 2026 Driver Compensation Study collected information from 130 fleets representing more than 140,000 drivers and 9,000 independent contractors. The study found that compensation for irregular-route truckload drivers increased by 8.3%. In 2025, dry van truckload drivers on irregular routes earned a median annual compensation of $73,639, an increase of 83% compared with 2023. Compensation for drivers working dedicated routes increased by 4.2% compared with 2023, and these drivers generally earned more than those on irregular routes. Long-haul less-than-truckload (LTL) drivers received median annual compensation of $85,000, while local LTL drivers earned an average of $72,942. Drivers working dedicated routes for private fleets, particularly those operating dry vans, also received iStock-1330613369 competitive compensation exceeding $75,000 annually. Independent contractors earned more in gross annual compensation, with median figures above $170,000 for some truckload operations and over $200,000 for private fleets.

3. Foreign Direct Investment - Mexico

Martinrea will invest $50M USD to expand its automotive manufacturing operations in Silao, Guanajuato. The project aims to manufacture larger and more complex components using high-strength steel and is expected to create approximately 30 new jobs. (Automotive Manufacturing, Canada).

HS Hyosung will invest $60M USD in San Luis Potosí to establish an automotive carpet manufacturing plant at Colinas Industrial Park. The first phase is iStock-2193247114 scheduled to begin in 2027 and is expected to create approximately 250 specialized jobs. (Industrial Manufacturing, South Korea)