Redwood MX Update: July 2026
1. Key Affecting Factors
Mexican Fuel: $27.025 MXN/Liter
U.S. Fuel: $5.652 USD/Gallon
Foreign Exchange: $16.9647 USD/MXN
Cargo theft in agricultural transportation rose 4% in the second quarter of 2026, representing 6% of all cargo theft incidents nationwide. Fertilizers and pesticides were the most targeted products, especially from May through September. About 92% of these thefts occurred in the Central, Southeast, and Bajío regions, mainly in Veracruz and Puebla. High-risk routes include Mexico-Veracruz, Querétaro-León, and Amozoc-Perote. The highest-risk days were Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, with peak vulnerability between 4:00 and 8:00 a.m. and 3:00 and 5:00 p.m. Overhaul recommends tailored security programs that combine strategic measures and technology according to each company’s needs.
The wholesale price of diesel in the United States surpassed $100 per barrel, while the national average reached $5.454 per gallon. The increase was driven by higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The West Coast recorded the highest prices, exceeding $6 per gallon. This increase is putting significant pressure on trucking fleets by raising operating costs and reducing margins. Although large carriers can use fuel surcharges, smaller carriers may face greater difficulties in passing these costs on to customers. This impact could result in higher transportation rates and increased supply chain costs. For Mexico, the situation is particularly relevant due to the strong integration of cross-border transportation with the United States.
The Central and Southeastern regions accounted for 77.6% of cargo theft incidents during the second quarter of 2026, remaining the highest-risk areas in Mexico. The Bajío region represented another 17.9% of incidents, showing an increase compared with 2025. The states with the highest incidence were the State of Mexico, Puebla, Guanajuato, Veracruz, and San Luis Potosí. Thursdays recorded the highest number of thefts, while nighttime, between 6:00 p.m. and midnight, was the riskiest period. The main modus operandi was intercepting trucks while in transit, accounting for 58.8% of cases, followed by thefts from parked units. Food and beverages were the most frequently stolen products, while the agricultural sector accounted for 6% of nationwide cargo theft. Within this sector, Veracruz and Puebla had the highest incidence, with Mexico-Veracruz and Querétaro-León standing out as high-risk routes.
2. Transportation News & Challenges
CANACAR and ANERPV signed an agreement to strengthen the prevention and fight against cargo theft in Mexico. The agreement includes information sharing, specialized training, coordination with authorities, and the use of technology. It also seeks to use data generated by tracking systems to improve cargo and road safety. Augusto Ramos, President of CANACAR, emphasized that collaborating is necessary to create better operating conditions. He noted that this collaboration represents a key step in addressing the security challenges faced by the transportation sector. He also highlighted that safe and efficient transportation is essential to the national economy. Finally, he stressed that the trucking industry must play an active role as an ally in this security strategy.
Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle industry saw a significant rebound in July 2026, with increases in production, wholesale sales, and exports. Wholesale sales rose 19.1%, while production increased 51.8% and exports grew 66.7% compared with July 2025. From January through July, production and exports remained 6.1% below the levels recorded during the same period in 2025. ANPACT highlighted the importance of maintaining clear rules and certainty under the T-MEC to support investment and regional competitiveness. The organization also called for adjustments to Section 232 tariffs and expressed concern about the growing number of used heavy-duty vehicles imported from the United States.
A federal operation against the CJNG in Michoacán triggered road blockades,
vehicle fires, and logistical disruptions across several areas of the state. Authorities reported at least 24 road blockades, affecting key routes used for cargo transportation. Mexico’s Defense Ministry reported the arrest of nine members of the criminal group and activated an Anti-Blockade Plan to restore traffic. ANTAC expressed concern about the risks faced by truck drivers and cargo units, including potential attacks, theft, and vehicle damage. The blockades disrupted the movement of goods and affected ground transportation operations. Authorities later restored traffic on several affected roads. The state government reported that security operations remained active in Zamora, La Piedad, and Pátzcuaro to maintain order.
The Mexican Federal Government confirmed that, during the January–June 2026 period, there was a 19.4% decrease in thefts from the trucking industry, which is the result of programs such as the “Balam” Strategy and the “Cero robo al transporte” Plan.
To support this positive trend, authorities will launch a “C4 Carretero” to enhance highway security. The system will combine thousands of surveillance cameras, intelligent license plate recognition gantries, and real-time monitoring, coordinated with the National Guard and state security centers.
It will cover a total of 1,407 kilometers of federal highways, with 1,005 monitoring points, a total of 3,015 cameras, as well as 120 gantries for automatic license plate detection. The routes included are: México-Querétaro, México-Puebla, Puebla-Córdoba, México-Ojo Caliente, Mexicali-Tijuana, La Tinaja-Cosoleacaque, Libramiento Poniente de Tampico, Querétaro-Irapuato, Libramiento Noreste de Querétaro, and Aguascalientes-Zacatecas.
3. Foreign Direct Investment - Mexico
TYW Manufacturing is investing $29 million to expand its automotive plant in Guanajuato. (Electronic Componentes, China)
Pegatron will invest $330 million USD in a new plant in Ciudad Juárez, focused on electronic components for electromobility and data centers. (Manufacturing, Taiwan)
Bosch will invest $300 million USD in a new Home Comfort plant in Ciénega de Flores, Nuevo León, creating more than 900 jobs and expanding its manufacturing, technology, and supplier capabilities. (Industrial Technology, Germany)
Waelzholz has begun construction of its first plant in Mexico, located in Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila, with an investment of $65 million USD and the creation of 100 jobs. The facility will produce cold-rolled steel for industrial sectors. (Manufacturing, Germany)
Procter & Gamble will expand its production capacity in Naucalpan, State of Mexico, with an investment of $140 million USD allocated to two projects that will strengthen the production of pharmaceuticals and healthcare products for markets in Latin America, North America, and other regions. (Mass Consumer Goods Production and Commercialization, United States)